Integrated Risk Management System for Strengthening Public Procurement in Ecuador

Abstract

Introduction: Public procurement in Ecuador faces a structural weakness associated with the absence of a comprehensive risk analysis system, which limits the efficiency, transparency, and integrity of contractual processes. Materials and methods: A mixed-methods study was conducted with a descriptive, explanatory, and propositional scope. The sample included 1,043 contract files selected through purposive sampling from a population of 45,000 processes registered between 2019 and 2024. Theoretical methods (analytical-synthetic, inductive-deductive, historical-logical) and empirical methods (document analysis, structured observation, multiple case studies) were employed, with processing using descriptive and inferential statistics (Chi-square, Cramer's V, 95% confidence level). Results: 62.1% of the files lacked documented risk analysis; only 14.2% incorporated structured matrices. 68.3% of the entities did not have specialized manuals; 56.3% of the staff lacked accredited training. An Integrated Risk Management System was designed, structured into four subsystems (normative-methodological, digital-analytical, training-professionalization, and monitoring-evaluation-indicators), with a multi-level governance model. Validation by a technical panel of 12 experts achieved an average rating of 4.58/5 (high validation), highlighting technical relevance (4.83) and public innovation (4.75). Discussion: The findings confirm a critical gap between international standards (ISO 31000, COSO) and national practice, characterized by a reactive paradigm of ex-post control versus a preventive, data-driven model. Conclusions: Implementing the designed system constitutes a viable alternative to transform the current reactive model into a preventive scheme of contractual governance based on evidence and proactive contingency management.